Never Say Never: A Lesson for Canada from the Iranian War
By Les Mader, 24 March 2026
The Broadsides Forum post of 18 February 2026 at the link below strongly called into question my suggestion that Canada should consider the United States of America (USA) as a potential security threat and prepare to be able to resist military coercion by it.
The resultant, limited discussion led to a de facto understanding that it was not changing anyone’s mind and that an agreement to disagree would be appropriate. This understanding occurred just as the 2026 Iranian War started.
The outbreak of this war has provided new information that is relevant to the original discussion. Specifically, the Iranian war has shown that:
- A President of the USA (POTUS) can launch an expensive (Link 1 below), world-impacting (Link 2 below) conflict/war based on the sketchiest of strategic planning (Links 3 and 4 below) and with unrealistic expectations about the war's key goals being met “… in as little as “two or three days.”” (Link 5 below).
- Militaries can always find the needed individuals to start a shooting war, even if the required actions are morally questionable.
- Once started, wars take on an unpredictable logic of their own, in part because “the enemy gets a vote on how they will unfold” (Link 6 below). Thus, the war’s initiator cannot simply stop the fighting whenever they want; events often spiral significantly out of control, especially once deaths have occurred.
Trump’s conduct of the Iranian war as POTUS has been so chaotic that a wise and very knowledgeable person recently told me “[With respect to Iran] ... we've entered an alternative universe. Trump obliterated Iran's nuclear weapons in June and yet he had to go to war because of Iran's nuclear weapons; right now Iran's military has been decimated, but the US/Israel need to keep bombing; the Iranian people should rise up and replace their government, but the US should pick the new leader; the US won't hit energy facilities but, wait, it might just "for fun"; the US has the Strait of Hormuz under control but NATO countries will suffer the consequences if they don't help in the Strait of Hormuz ...”
I feel that all of the above is extremely relevant to any discussion about the potential for an American threat to Canada. Unless the USA radically curtails POTUS’ power to launch military conflicts by themselves, Canada will always have to worry about some POTUS deciding to apply the “Donroe Doctrine” to it and conducting “quick military excursions” to gain advantages or to “punish” Canadian actions.
Post continues on the Broadsides Forum
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Latest CNR: Vol. 21 No. 3 (2026)
Happy New Year! Now that January is here, we all need something to look forward to – other than bills for all those things you bought for Christmas! Fret no longer, you can look forward to the upcoming CNR issue.
As usual, the new issue of CNR contains a variety of interesting articles. Our first article was the winning essay of the 2025 CNMT Essay Competition. It’s called “Pirates and Partnerships: An Examination of Maritime Non-State Actors,” by Edward Khitab. Khitab uses the example of the Sea Shepherd Conservation Society to examine the nature and increasing number of maritime non-state actors -- and concludes that the RCN needs to start paying attention to them.
The second article, “The Strategic Utility of Aircraft Carriers in China’s Ambitions in East Asia,” discusses the rapid growth of China’s aircraft carrier capability and how and where Beijing would likely use them in the case of war. The third article is “Why Does Canada have a Navy? Reflecting on the Canadian Leaders at Sea Program.” In this article, the author addresses a simple question that was asked while he was participating in the CLaS program, and considers what a navy represents and why Canada has one. The final essay, “SS Nerissa: A Tragic Footnote to History,” tells the little-known story of the last voyage of SS Nerissa that was sunk by a U-boat while transporting troops and civilians across the Atlantic in the Second World War.
If that isn’t enough to spark your interest, we have our usual Making Waves commentaries. We have a commentary about hydrography in the Arctic. Sound boring? It’s not. If Canada is getting submarines that are expected to operate in the Arctic, Ottawa needs to act now to map the seafloor there. We have a commentary about the many historic discussions about moving the Coast Guard into the defence department. We have a commentary about the unthinkable – i.e., having naval ships that can act as ‘tripwires’ in the event that the United States decides to blockade Canada. We have an account of a conference in Australia, Canadian interest in East Asia, and preparing for Russia in the Arctic.
And, of course, we have our regular columns. “A View from the West” looks at North Korea’s increasing focus on its navy. “Dollars and Sense” examines the defence-related parts of Budget 2025, and “Warship Developments” updates us on several interesting recent naval decisions.
In addition to all this great information, we have our usual amazing photos!
Stay tuned. In a few weeks, the issue will be in the mailbox of people who are lucky enough to be subscribers! It’s not too late for you to subscribe. See here for the Table of Contents.
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