By Jeff G. Gilmour, 10 February 2024
A recent article by Robert Fife and Steven Chase – “China gains major Arctic foothold as Russia turns to Beijing more, report finds” -- states that Russia has been forced to turn to China to help maintain its military and economic presence in the Arctic because of its defence spending requirements in the Ukraine. I maintain that China has to date already taken significant steps to enhance its presence in Canada’s Arctic Ocean. Note, for example, the following:
1. China has become an ‘observer’ on the Arctic Council indicating it is very interested in Arctic affairs;
2. It is building a third icebreaker which is expected to be in service next year. The icebreaker Xue Long visited the Northwest Passage in 1999, and conducted China’s first transit of the Northwest Passage in 2017;
3. In March 2023 the Canadian military discovered Chinese monitoring buoys in Canadian Arctic waters which are able to monitor and track submarines;
4. Many of China’s research vessels, which have operated in Canadian Arctic waters, are owned and operated by state-affiliated organizations with close ties to the Peoples Liberation Army;
5. By 2025 China will have built for use in the Arctic Shang3 (Type 093B) Class Nuclear Attack Submarines (SSGN).
See the article at China gains major Arctic foothold as Russia turns to Beijing more, report finds - The Globe and Mail
16 thoughts on “China in the Arctic”
For the intelligence report that documents this changing relationship between China and Russia, consult the report, Shifting Ice: Russia’s Increasing Reliance on the Private Sector and the PRC in the Arctic.
Strider Technologies, Inc., Shifting Ice: Russia’s Increasing Reliance on the Private Sector and the PRC in the Arctic, (2024). [Accessed at: https://www.striderintel.com/resources/shifting-ice-russias-increasing-reliance-on-the-private-sector-and-the-prc-in-the-arctic/%5D
Sorry Dan. Cannot read this article.
https://content.striderintel.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/Strider_Shifting_Ice_Report.pdf
Kind of disappointed actually, more or less confirming greater economic cooperation between China and Russia which is well known given China’s desire to develop the Polar Silk Road through Russia’s Northern Sea Route. If anything I’m willing to bet that China is a partner of convenience to take the pressure off Russia to devote more resources to the war in Ukraine. The entire report is talking about economic activity between two nations in their own territory.
So what is the government doing about this? Nothing.
The article in reference is based partly on a report by Strider Technologies which is a private intelligence company based in the US that uses tools such as AI to gather data, analysis and generate reports.
Yes China has observer status at the Arctic council since 2013 so this is not new info, at the same time France, Japan, South Korea, Britain, India, Poland and others have observer status as well along with various associations and interest groups. China has a vested interest in the Arctic as it’s a shorter route for trade from China to Europe through the Northern Sea Route in partnership with Russia as part of their Polar Silk Road ambitions. Russia has sizable population centers on its Arctic Coast around 2.5 Million people compared with Canada’s 200,000 so the buildup of icebreakers, and infrastructure is understandable. China remains highly dependent upon Arctic governments and organizations to advance its interests there and over the last few years have had some reversals so a partnership with Russia is convenient. Certainly a country to watch but in my opinion not an immediate threat.
The government never released information on the instrumentation the “monitoring buoys” carried or their purpose. Lots of speculation of course from scientific work to actively monitoring US submarines. Lots of concern but nothing done by the government.
Many of the research vessels are owned by the state and that is par for the course in China and really expected. The PLA operates civilian type industry producing all manners of goods, not a stretch that research vessels are associated with the PLA or Chinese government. We too have governmental research vessels.
The yet to be finished type Type 093B submarine is as far as I can determine not Arctic capable. You just can’t send submarines through the Arctic without extensive testing and even then it’s a risky proposition and must be fitted out to operate in the Arctic.
I think overall Russia and China are certainly countries to watch in the Arctic as part of the overall maritime picture bordering our territory but I certainly don’t lose sleep over it.
So far Ted, Canada cannot even ‘watch’ both Russia & China in our high Arctic. Let’s face it; both Russia & the PLAN have been doing much more than just ‘bordering’ Canada’s High Arctic territory. These “monitoring” buoys by China are certainly a major concern for not just Canada but for all our allies who work in the Arctic. When China operates its task groups, it would naturally have some sort of nuclear submarine with it as part of that TG as most Allied navies would as well. China’s TG’s have been operating and exercising with Russia’s TGs with their Yassen class SSNs in the High Arctic for years now. China’s new 093B SSGN submarine is said to be Arctic capable. What information do you have that it has not been ‘fitted out’ to work in the Arctic? Russia has been providing China with its own Arctic submarine technology for years now, so I would assume it has provided them with that technology as well. You seem to think that all of this is nothing to lose sleep over. I only hope that your assumptions are in the minority with most Canadians. Are you willing to bet Canada’s sovereignty on the assumption and opinion that China’s ambitions in the High Arctic are not an immediate threat? I for one, am not willing to do that!
No offence, you don’t know what intelligence capability Canada has or has access to in regards to activities in the Arctic. You are speculating. Other to what I have read in that article, haven’t read too much about China operating submarines or missile boats under the Arctic ice or if they have that capability currently. I did read a 2019 article mentioning concerns from the Pentagon saying they are probably working towards that capability as it takes good charts, ice strengthening and other specialized equipment to successfully operate in the arctic. I also read of the technical difficulties of even getting there. I would expect they are working toward that goal just as Russia and the US did during the cold war, why not them? In all honesty given the economic ties China and Russia have, it is no surprise that are cooperating militarily, certainly not a prelude to invasion or war but obviously something to keep an eye on like Russia that we are fighting by proxy.
Even if they started to operate in Canadian territory it would be a risk for them if discovered and just like Russia would invoke treaties we have with North American, Nordic and European countries.
I am sure, Ted, that Russia has already supplied China over the last 5 years or so with all the Arctic technology they require to help them with their submarine requirements to work in the Arctic as they have the expertise with their own ice strengthened SSNs (good charts and all). With what Canada has (or doesn’t have) for C4ISR to monitor its Arctic territories, China’s submarines should have little problems to covertly navigate through the Canadian High Arctic. Even if Canada did have the technology to monitor Russian or Chinese traffic, what could we do to counter these intrusions? Answer….nothing! We again would have to rely on our American and NATO allies to provide security. Again, not what a sovereign state should be doing if it wants to be completely sovereign and not a protectorate state.
https://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/2022/may/chinese-submarines-under-ice
Well there seems to be no doubt about it now. I have been arguing & advocating for several years now that China has already been in Canada’s own Arctic regions and is strengthening its ties with Russia in Canada’s far north with its own Task Group operations with the Russian Navy. Both China & Russia are building Polar Class Nuclear Icebreakers at alarming rates and China is now building SSGN Nuclear submarines to carry ‘Mini-Subs’ into our region to detect & track Allied submarines and under-sea communications. These articles by Robert Fife, Steven Chase & Robert Huebert’s opinion from August 2023 cast no doubt that China’s Peoples Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) is now a major player in Canada’s Northern Archipelago and is here to stay. It also seems to bear out that Ottawa has known about these intrusions to our Arctic sovereignty for years now and has done (or can do) very little to curtail China’s ability to do anything about it for several years now. It is far time that Canadian’s wake up to these facts and get on with properly protecting our own sovereignty now and not rely on Ottawa’s “speaking notes” to calm the waters. Remember… “Use It Or Lose It”? That also seems to be bearing fruit for both China & Russia.
An outline strategy for improving the defence of Canada’s Arctic sovereignty already exists. It requires significant investment, the will to be serious, and, possibly, a change in the priorities and attitudes of the navy’s and CAF’s leadership.
The initial steps of this strategy could be implemented now using only existing personnel, ships, aircraft, and resources. Such an effort should be undertaken soonest, both as a proof of principle and to signal clearly Canada’s willingness to act.
Fyi/fyc.
Ubique,
Les
I think the issue is that the whole population of the Canadian Arctic is 150,000 people which is not a lot and not seen to be worth it by the government. Any significant investment in infrastructure is billions and years of development. See how long it took to build the Arctic refueling depot as an example because building things in the Arctic is expensive and time consuming compared to down south. Defence is not exactly flush with cash right now or so we are told. We do sporadic overflights with MPA, patrolling the NW passage, annual naval deployments and the odd troop exercise along with the CCG deployments. The new P8’s, Arctic capable drones, expanded airfields, F35’s, CSC, JSS and new submarines will help but will take years to implement. In the meantime building partnerships with the US, NATO including our Nordic neighbors is key to collective defence if needed.
Let me guess Les. This outline strategy for improving the defence of Canada’s Arctic sovereignty is so important that it is too highly ‘classified’ to openly discuss. Right?
Hi David,
I guess I left an incorrect impression with my earlier comment. The outline strategy is not the government’s but rather one that Col Brian Wentzell and I articulated in various articles in the CNR.
Ubique,
Les
This entire conversation is mere joke. Nobody in the government is taking Canadian arctic defence seriously. They think lollipops and good fairies will suffice and argue with NATO we are doing everything we possibly can with all the outdated rusted out equipment. Canadians should be ashamed especially our leaders, but who cares anymore.
Again you’re speculating and I can certainly do the same. Russia and China have no great love for each other and Russia doesn’t want a potential rival in nuclear submarines parked off their coast. There are better routes for submarines than our NW passage. What’s happening now is a matter of economic and military convenience for Russia in the Ukraine. Until we see proof of nuclear submarines in our waters, then I am not concerned.
If all of a sudden we saw signs of Chinese submarines in our territorial waters what do you think would happen? It would invoke a response through our treaties with NORAD and NATO and more than likely war collectively. China is not that stupid and travelling though our waters when there are better and easier routes through the Northern Sea Route and NE passage is inherently risky and what would be the end game anyways? What do you think would happen is they ground and have an accident?
https://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/2022/may/chinese-submarines-under-ice