By Les Mader, 24 March 2026
The Broadsides Forum post of 18 February 2026 at the link below strongly called into question my suggestion that Canada should consider the United States of America (USA) as a potential security threat and prepare to be able to resist military coercion by it.
The resultant, limited discussion led to a de facto understanding that it was not changing anyone’s mind and that an agreement to disagree would be appropriate. This understanding occurred just as the 2026 Iranian War started.
The outbreak of this war has provided new information that is relevant to the original discussion. Specifically, the Iranian war has shown that:
- A President of the USA (POTUS) can launch an expensive (Link 1 below), world-impacting (Link 2 below) conflict/war based on the sketchiest of strategic planning (Links 3 and 4 below) and with unrealistic expectations about the war's key goals being met “… in as little as “two or three days.”” (Link 5 below).
- Militaries can always find the needed individuals to start a shooting war, even if the required actions are morally questionable.
- Once started, wars take on an unpredictable logic of their own, in part because “the enemy gets a vote on how they will unfold” (Link 6 below). Thus, the war’s initiator cannot simply stop the fighting whenever they want; events often spiral significantly out of control, especially once deaths have occurred.
Trump’s conduct of the Iranian war as POTUS has been so chaotic that a wise and very knowledgeable person recently told me “[With respect to Iran] ... we've entered an alternative universe. Trump obliterated Iran's nuclear weapons in June and yet he had to go to war because of Iran's nuclear weapons; right now Iran's military has been decimated, but the US/Israel need to keep bombing; the Iranian people should rise up and replace their government, but the US should pick the new leader; the US won't hit energy facilities but, wait, it might just "for fun"; the US has the Strait of Hormuz under control but NATO countries will suffer the consequences if they don't help in the Strait of Hormuz ...”
I feel that all of the above is extremely relevant to any discussion about the potential for an American threat to Canada. Unless the USA radically curtails POTUS’ power to launch military conflicts by themselves, Canada will always have to worry about some POTUS deciding to apply the “Donroe Doctrine” to it and conducting “quick military excursions” to gain advantages or to “punish” Canadian actions.
Such military excursions could involve (among other options):
- “Quarantining” Canada’s coasts to stop its seaborne trade.
- Intervening physically in Canadian politics, perhaps in the context of a failed provincial separation referendum.
Given such a possible future, I believe that the Canadian government and the CAF leadership must consider how to deal with such risks, even if they seem implausible at any given moment, and make appropriate (and extremely discrete) preparations. POTUS come and POTUS go and we have no control over how wise, competent and stable each new one is.
Link 1: White House seeks $200bn in military funding in wake of Iran war
Link 2: Wary allies show there's no quick fix to Trump's Iran crisis
Link 3: Inside Trump’s decision to attack Iran and the scramble to contain the fallout | CNN Politics
Link 4: Analysis: Trump demands help from European allies to resolve Strait of Hormuz crisis | CNN Politics
Link 5: An air power expert explains why Iran is more powerful now than before the war
Link 6: Analysis: Trump faces legacy-defining dilemmas in Iran | CNN Politics
Image: Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer USS Frank E. Petersen Jr. (DDG 121) fires a Tomahawk Land Attack Missile during operations in support of Operation Epic Fury, Feb. 28, 2026. (U.S. Navy Photo)
