Military Procurement in Canada: A Budget Reality Check 

By Jeff G. Gilmour, 16 March 2025

The purpose of this post is to argue that there seems to be no reality associated with the projected budget costs for various military projects proposed for the Department of National Defence (DND).

      As noted in the government budget of 2024, the department was included in the overall 3% government cutbacks. There was also note of $1.52 billion in lapsed funding in 2022-23 and a further $1.1 billion dollars in “adjustments to spending on capital equipment and infrastructure projects.”

      Many federal politicians are now stating that they can reduce the time for this country to reach the 2% of GDP for defence spending from the earlier announced date of 2032. On October 2024 the Parliamentary Budget Officer (PBO) noted it will cost us $81.9 billion to achieve this target by 2032-33.

        Aside from the government possibly wanting to achieve this goal, our federal governments have over the years proposed a number of significant military projects costing billions of dollars. The following is a broad list of some of these projects.

First, one of the first major shipbuilding programs announced in the 2010 National Shipbuilding Strategy (NSS) was the Canadian Surface Combatant (CSC), according to which 15 destroyers were to be constructed, designated recently as the River-class. The intention is to build these warships at the Irving Halifax shipyard. The first of the ships is expected in the 2030s and the last in 2050. The cost for this program has escalated over the years:

2019 - federal government estimated cost - $60 billion

2022 - PBO estimated cost - $84 billion

2025 – 3-year extrapolated cost - $102 billion

As shown in recent shipbuilding costs, these figures are likely conservative.

In addition to the concern of costs to build these ships in the first place, many critics argue that surface fleets are now at great risk from drones and missiles, as we can see from what has happened to the Russian Black Sea Fleet in the war in Ukraine.

Second, DND announced it is looking at replacing the four Victoria-class submarines with 15 diesel-electrical submarines purchased from other allied countries, for example Sweden, Germany or South Korea. The costs associated with such a purchase would be in the billions of dollars. It is likely that crewing 15 boats would be a problem as well for the RCN.

Third, the projected costs for the fleet renewal program were identified in the NSS for both the ships of the RCN and the Canadian Coast Guard. Based on the number of ships to be built, even though the costs of some projects were not identified, the total costs at that time came to around $115 billion.1 Since these earlier cost projections, the cost of the six Arctic and Offshore Patrol Ships (AOPS) ships increased to $4.98 billion, and the costs of the two Joint Support Ships (JSS) being built at Seaspan shipyard in Vancouver increased to $3.4 billion, an increase of approximately one billion dollars.

Fourth, in June 2022 former Defence Minister Anita Anand announced Canada’s $36.6 billion plan to modernize NORAD over two decades, from 2028 until 2042. The plan includes 19 areas of upgrades designed to improve Canadian defence capabilities in the North.

Fifth, it must be remembered that the RCN is not the only branch of the Canadian Armed Forces that needs funds for recapitalization. The following contracts have already been executed recently for the RCAF:

$19 billion for the purchase of 88 F-35 aircraft from Lockheed Martin;

$3.6 billion for the purchase of 9 Polaris aircraft from Airbus;

$2.4 billion for the purchase of 11 MQ-9B Reaper drones from General Atomic in 2023.

Based on the number of proposed major military projects by various governments and the identified significant costs, I believe serious discussions must take place in order to justify proceeding ahead with such projects. Decisions must take place soon before contacts are entered into with third parties. I maintain that these military projects, based on their significant projected costs, are unrealistic and delusional.

1. Jeff G. Gilmour “The Future Prospects for the National Shipbuilding Strategy,” Canadian Naval Review, Vol.18, No. 2 (2022), p. 11.

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