By Dr. Ann Griffiths, 31 December 2023
It’s the time of year for reflection, so I thought I’d take a few minutes to reflect on the past year for Canadian Naval Review and the RCN, and speculate about the year to come. As far as CNR is concerned, 2023 was a good year. We had a great response to the annual CNMT-sponsored essay contest – we received so many excellent submissions that it was hard for the judges to pick just one winner! We published a joint issue with Australian Naval Review which was an interesting and worthwhile exercise to compare perspectives on issues of interest to the navies of both Canada and Australia. We published a variety of articles and commentaries on important and timely topics by authors from around the country, and from other countries as well. And the discussion on Broadsides has been lively. In my extremely biased opinion, we’ve lived up to our slogan “insightful and engaging.”
When we reflect on the past year for the RCN, perhaps it hasn’t been such a good year. Recent reports indicate that sexual harassment continues. Personnel shortages are still acute. And the navy, and the Canadian Armed Forces in general, are now facing budget cuts. But, on the positive side, the navy introduced the Naval Experience Program, which may help with personnel shortages. As well, another AOPS was handed over to the navy, although it’s still not clear what will be done with the ships – right now there are four of them docked in Halifax, beautifully decorated for the holiday season. But perhaps they should be out doing offshore and/or Arctic work. Will the Canadian Surface Combatants appear? If so, how many of them? And when? Will there be movement to replace the Victoria-class submarines?
What are your thoughts about the year 2024? I’d be interested to hear what Broadsides readers think will happen for the RCN in the coming year.
6 thoughts on “Happy New Year?”
Hello Ann. My 8 thoughts on the RCN for 2024:
1. The latest PDR from Lockheed Martin will finally be revealed to the Canadian public.
2. ISL will finally sign a firm contract with the Government of Canada for the first batch (3 CSC ships) of CSC Frigates to begin building before the end of 2024.
3. Canada will finally choose the next generation of 10-12 modern submarines to replace the Victoria class SSKs before the end of 2024.
4. The next generation of 12 OPVs to replace the Kingston Class will be chosen by the end of this year.
5. RCN personnel strength will increase “substantially” in order to strengthen our NATO commitments before the end of 2024.
6. The Government will at least “begin” the process for the NATO requirement to increase its GDP towards defence to at least 2% before the end of 2024.
7. The enhanced SSE Defence and International security policies will finally be revealed before the end of 2024.
8. And World Peace (Especially in Ukraine and Israel)!!!
HAPPY NEW YEAR TO ALL FORUM MEMBERS!!
Love the optimism! My predictions:
1. Some CSC design information will be released, but not enough to satisfy the truly engaged.
2. Irving will sign a contract for the CSC build, but will not begin work this year.
3. Canada will take preliminary action, such as a request for proposals, on submarines.
4. Nothing public will happen on the MCDV replacement in 2024.
5. RCN personnel strength will grow but not fast enough to fill the ships.
6. There will be no attempt to reach 2%, unless additional hostilities break out.
7. If there is an update to policy it will result in no changes except on paper.
8. Global maritime security will continue to decline. The US will increasingly be forced to intervene directly and will request allied assistance. Shots will be fired in the South China Sea or Taiwan strait.
9. The 6th AOPS, first JSS, and the oceanographic science vessel, will launch.
10. Davie will finally sign a build contract.
11. The 28th and final Cyclone helicopter will be delivered twenty years to the day after the contract was signed.
12. After Herculean efforts, Nanisivik naval station will open late in the season (I’m being optimisic too!).
13. While I’m being optimistic, one of the Victoria class submarines will be used somewhere, for something, and we will find out about it!
Personnel shortages are common among navies. For instance, Black Pearl runs on skeleton crew :) Happy New year!
Ref https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Pearl
Now that is funny! Looks like the Black Pearl is armed to the teeth. Perhaps ISL could build us 15 of the “Black Pearl class” to replace the Halifax class instead. Couldn’t do much worse than what we have (or don’t have) now. With “Skeleton” crews the RCN could crew about 20 or 30 of the BP class! Where would you put the Rum though? Ah Ha! in the Multi-Mission Bay (Scran locker)!
1. Sexual harassment will always be part of the RCN and CAF because they are a reflection of society but we can do actions to try and minimize it. It will never be eliminated.
2. Personnel shortages will continue to plague the RCN this year and for many years in the future unless we take bold action and reimagine the recruiting process.
3. The naval experience program while helpful wasn’t the success that was hoped. We also need to focus on retention and that means increased benefits and retention bonuses. Until we accept that recruiting will never be successful.
4. The RCN knows exactly how and where AOPS will be used and have published that fact many times. They are alongside in Halifax for Christmas as typically we try and minimize sailing over Christmas for QOL for the crews. They have a busy sailing schedule for 2024.
5. CSC design review completion, contract signing and steel cutting will occur sometime in 2024. The sail away costs of CSC will be known sometime in 2024.
6. We won’t see any movement in selection the Victoria class replacement in 2024.
7. We won’t see any selection of a Kingston Class replacement until 2030 earliest.
Further to the manning continuing shortages and the increasing efforts to eradicate unbearable sexual harassment, I would rather talk about platforms. I envision two external events during 2024 being highly influential in the composition of the future Royal Canadian Navy fleet.
First, the final Dutch decision on the Walrus replacement program. The selected candidate may have increasing possibilities to be also selected by the RCN (not yet in 2024). It may also happen that, as the relevant shipyard capacity would be booked, RCN would finally have to opt for a different shipyard and submarine type.
Second, nine months after the release of the Australian Defence Strategic Review, the RAN is still in the review process of their future fleet mix. Several options are being explored, including a revamped Hunter class frigate (with increased number of VLS), the addition of further Hobart destroyers, a new class of “Tier-2” surface combatants and more. All of them aimed to increase the firepower of the surface fleet and increase the number of combatants. The lessons of this outcome will most probably be apprehended by the RCN. I’m not saying the CSC program will be altered in the short term (2024-25), but in the long run I foresee the 15 vessels being reduced to 10-12 and the gap being filled with lower cost and crewing requirement units, hopefully in greater numbers (six at least).
Finally, I would not be surprised by DND announcing the procurement (not a firm deal) of a couple of additional auxiliary vessels, similar to those that the British have acquired in 2023. Either motherships as RFA Stirling Castle (1) or seabed warfare vessels, similar to RFA Proteus (2). Probably refit of existing vessels too.
Happy New year to all the CNR readers, to the Editorial Board members and those who make the Review possible.
(1) See http://www.navylookout.com/up-close-with-rfa-stirling-castle-first-of-the-navys-new-motherships/
(2) See http://www.navylookout.com/a-guide-to-rfa-proteus-the-uks-new-seabed-warfare-vessel/