The New Liberal Government and Priority Defence Issues

By Jeff G. Gilmour, 15 May 2025

Now that the Mark Carney Liberals have been elected, it will be interesting to see how they will address Canada’s military after decades of decline. This lack of political priority by Ottawa has hurt its operational readiness, the Canadian Armed Forces’ capacity to recruit and train soldiers, sailors and aviators, and its investment in equipment and infrastructure.^[1]

A) NATO

In their election platform, the Liberals stated that they intend to reach the 2% of GDP for defence in another four fiscal years, perhaps by 2030, even though Canada stated it would meet this target in 2014.^[2] NATO officials are now saying that they can no longer rely on the United States; that member states will likely have to increase their defence spending up to 3.5%. Trump now seems to be pushing this figure to 5%. Based on the Liberal timelines, the Parliamentary Budget Office (PBO) determined the government will have to spend $30.9B over the next four years ending in 2025-29, which will still leave Canada $10B short.

B)   The Arctic

In the recent federal election, the PM stated he “wishes to strengthen our military presence and infrastructure on the Arctic.”^[3] The Liberal government has, in the past, promised to focus on Arctic issues but has spread out the timelines and funding to complete projects in the North decades later. This is unrealistic based on current global affairs affecting the Arctic Ocean and Canadian sovereignty in the three territories.

            In 2022, the then Minister of National Defence, Anita Anand, announced a NORAD Modernization Program of $38.6B over a span of 20 years. On 18 March 2025 the Minister of National Defence, Bill Blair, stated that Canada is to partner with Australia in the building of an ‘over the horizon’ radar system for $6 billion. This was money evidently coming from the earlier 2022 pronouncement.^[4] It was also noted by Blair that $420 million will be spent on the CAF “to have a greater sustained year-round presence in the Arctic and to expand training and deployment in the North.”

            On 6 March 2025 Blair said that the federal government will operate three northern military hubs at Yellowknife, Iqaluit and Inuvik for $2.67B.^[5] No timelines were mentioned at the time. It is interesting to note that each of these locations already has FOL hangars for aircraft and runways that are already being used by commercial aircraft. What is required however in these three facilities is the deployment of troops, equipment and fighter aircraft on a regular basis now, and not in the future to protect and monitor activities in the North.

C)    Procurement

It is fair to say that Canada’s military procurement program has been an unmitigated disaster. The time for actually acquiring military capital equipment for the CAF is painful. For example, just look at the time it took to replace the Sea-King helicopters, and now the acquisition of the F-35 to replace the CF-18s. The initial selection of the F-35 aircraft was made by the Harper government in 2010, but due to contract irregularities, the project was cancelled. In 2023, 13 years later, the Liberal government finally announced the purchase of 88 F-35s at a cost of $19.8B. The acquisition is to come in stages, with the last of the aircraft not arriving until 2032.  Then, just before the election, the government stated that under contract Canada was buying 16 F-35s at a cost of $7B. The first of these aircraft are due next year. At the same time, the PM announced that due to the current political situation in the United States, Canada would be looking at purchasing fighter aircraft elsewhere.^[6]

            The PBO projected in 2023 the estimated cost of the entire fleet of 18 aircraft to be $73.9B, inclusive of development, acquisition, operations, sustainment and disposal costs.^[7] It is interesting to note that other NATO countries such as Denmark, Norway and Holland have been operating F-35 squadrons for years. These same aircraft will not be operational in RCAF squadrons for some time based on our procurement process.   

            One of the promises made recently by both the Liberal and Conservative governments was to build a number of heavily armed icebreakers for the RCN for billions of dollars.^[8] Currently two heavy duty icebreakers are being built for the Canadian Coast Guard at the Seaspan and Davie shipyards. Icebreaking responsibilities in this country have always been the mandate of our Coast Guard. Why would the RCN want to pick up this shared responsibility as well? It is having enough trouble manning the ships it has. As noted by retired Vice-Admiral Mark Norman, “I am puzzled because I don’t know what we’re trying to achieve other than the political objective of demonstrating our commitment to Arctic sovereignty.”

            The new Liberal government also stated that it is very interested in purchasing new submarines for the RCN from other suppliers, such as Sweden or South Korea. Recently the South Koreans, from a trio of companies, proposed to the Canadian government to build four submarines for $20-24B; the first to be delivered by 2025. They also refer to delivering armoured vehicles, mobile howitzers and artillery rocket systems. Such a costly purchase is in addition to Ottawa announcing in 2011 the purchase of 15 warships from Irving Shipyards under the National Shipbuilding Program (NSS). DND maintained the cost of this project at $60B; whereas the PBO in 2022 estimated the cost at around $80B. Then, just before the election, the Liberal government awarded Irving, based on the 2011 commitment, $2.6B for design and prep work, $8B for an implementation contract and $22.2B for the purchase of three ships, with no break-down of costs or timelines.^[9] You can now imagine what the total cost will be for the remaining 12 other ships to be built!

            Some of the considerations/questions which relate to our procurement problems include:

1. Look at other NATO countries’ procurement processes to streamline our current regime;
2. Look at acquiring equipment off-the-shelf from countries such as South Korea, Finland etc.;
3. Can this country sustain three shipyards to provide ships to the RCN and the Canadian Coast Guard;
4. Restrict the purchase of capital equipment to one federal Cabinet Minister instead of three;
5. Look at realistic budgets/purchases! How can the DND budget afford the acquisition of 15 destroyers from Irving Shipyard for $100B, as well as the purchase of new submarines from other countries at an unknown billion dollar price tag;
6. Reduce the timelines significantly from the design phase to the building phase of new capital equipment for the CAF.
7. Address the potential problem of relying solely on the United States for new equipment and security and look to other NATO allies for support.

The new Liberal government has recognized the problems with our existing procurement process. It plans to establish the new Bureau of Research, Engineering and Advanced Leadership in Science (Borealis) to develop weapons and surveillance technology.^[10] How this new bureau will improve the existing military procurement process we will have to wait and see.

Conclusion

On the basis of potential risks and threats to this country from both Russia and China, time is not on our side improving defence capabilities after years of neglect. Such dramatic changes cannot be accomplished overnight; both in providing proper equipment and personnel, and a substantial increase to the budget.

            In our Arctic there has been much talk but limited action in improving defence capabilities and infrastructure needs. Past governments have publicly announced projects, but limited any effect of those undertakings by spreading out unrealistic timelines and budgets for the various projects. For example, most of the NORAD Modernization Project will take decades to complete. Based on the potential threat, these completion dates are not helpful. There are no reasons why aircraft, drones and troops cannot be deployed now to such important bases as Iqaluit and Inuvik on a permanent basis. In addition, there are many ways to carry out detection and surveillance methods to monitor our Arctic Ocean from intruders.

            Based on the current politics in the United States, and the current global military threats, many experts in this country are sounding the alarm as to what Canada needs to defend itself now in the absence of a reliable ally to our southern border. It seems clear we must seek allies elsewhere, such as Europe and the Commonwealth, for defence and intelligence support in countering existing threats to NATO and our Arctic territories.

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^[1] Globe and Mail, S. Chase. “The eight fateful issues that Canada’s next PM must face,” Defence, 28 April 2025.

^[2] Globe and Mail, Editorial, “The Conservatives and Liberals refuse to stand on guard,” 25 April 2025.

^[3] CBC News, “Arctic sovereignty overshadowing everyday issues in federal election for some in Nunavvmmiut,” 24 April 2025.

^[4] CBC, “Canada to partner with Australia on early warning detection system in the Arctic,” 18 March 2025.

^[5] CBC News, “Feds announce locations of 3 northern military hubs,” 6 March 2025.

^[6] CBC News, M. Brewster, “Canada reconsidering F-35 purchase amid tensions with Washington, says Minister,” 14 March 2025.

^[7] https//www. pbo-dpb.ca

^[8] CBC News, M. Brewster, “Is the promise of military icebreakers political theatre or sensible policy?” 9 May 2025.

^[9] CBC News, M. Brewster, “Feds sign $8B preliminary contract for new navy destroyers while parliament sidelined,” March 8, 2025.

^[10] Liberal Party Platform “Canada Strong,” 2025.

Image: A photo of the Cabinet of Prime Minister Mark Carney in May 2025. Credit: Prime Minister of Canada X account