Carney’s Defence Speech

By Dr. Ann Griffiths, 13 June 2025

A few days ago Prime Minister Mark Carney made a major announcement about defence. It was a good speech, made by a serious man in sombre tones. He noted the more dangerous world where threats are multiplying and Canada’s geography no longer protects us. Canada needs a more secure set of partnerships and “deeper alliances with stable democracies.” As he said, the world is at a turning point, a hinge moment, and it’s time for Canada to respond. Right now CAF personnel don’t have the resources they need for this new darker world.

In response, he pledged to meet the NATO benchmark target of 2% of Gross Domestic Product by the end of the current fiscal year in March, i.e., less than a year. And he pledged to rebuild, reinvest and rearm the CAF. The effort to do this has four pillars:

1. invest in the foundations of defence (i.e., personnel, infrastructure). The government will alleviate personnel shortages by greater attention to housing and child care services, increase salaries and speed up the recruitment process.
2. increase capabilities. The government will invest in submarines, aircraft, ships, armed vehicles, artillery, radar, drones, sensors, satellite technology. And it will set up BOREALIS/Bureau of Research, Engineering, and Advanced Leadership in Science to emphasize cutting edge research in AI and quantum computing. The Canadian Coast Guard will be integrated into “our NATO defence capabilities” with oversight moved to DND.
3. strengthen the Canadian defence industry. It will establish a Defence Industrial Strategy. As Carney said, you can’t have true security without economic prosperity.
4. diversify defence partnerships. Canada will no longer spend 75% of defence funds in the United States. Canada will become part of REARM Europe.

DND is tasked to design a new defence policy. And a new defence procurement agency – overseen by new Secretary of State for Defence Procurement – will centralize and expedite decision-making.

This all sounds amazing. These are the right words. I desperately want to believe them, but I have concerns.

1. I worry that this is a performance of fancy footwork designed to make the G7 meeting and the NATO meeting later this month less awkward for Canada. Is the 2% target going to be met simply by adding the CCG into defence spending?
2. Carney lays out a long list of military purchases. What’s the timeline and how will all this be paid for?
3. Complaining about the glacial pace of military procurement is a regular event in Ottawa, as are promises to fix it. Will this new plan go the way of all the other plans?
4. Governments have been promising to boost recruitment for years, and yet personnel shortages continue.  
5. BOREALIS sounds great but what makes it better than the already existing Innovation for Defence Excellence and Security (IDEaS) program?
6. Will there be tension between Carney’s promises about defence and his promises about the economy? It has become clear with the National Shipbuilding Strategy that employment is as high (or higher) a priority as actually getting ships delivered to the navy. On 11 June Industry Minister Mélanie Joly promised that the funding announced for Canada’s defence industry will go to all regions of the country (https://www.msn.com/en-ca/money/topstories/all-regions-will-get-fair-share-of-defence-windfall-industry-minister/ar-AA1Gx7Oa?ocid=hpmsn&cvid=f8f18a7c244c4e45b0e1ccd573953313&ei=78), which makes it sound like once again the optics of benefits to everyone are more important than getting kit for the military.

Like I said, I really want to believe, but as Prime Minister Carney said in the speech “aspiration without effort is just empty rhetoric.” I’m going to wait and see how the ratio of effort versus rhetoric shapes up.

Image: Prime Minister Carney, with Defence Minister McGuinty behind him, announces how Canada will get to 2% of GDP in defence spending by 2026 during an event in Toronto, 9 June 2025. Credit: David McGuinty's X account