By Peter M. Sanderson, 13 November 2024
Our allies are increasing their sub fleets. Norway and Germany have suddenly doubled their Type-212CD order and bumped Canada off the queue, see chart #4. South Korea decided to build boats 5 and 6, finishing off the Jang Bogo KSSIII class, making Hanwha Ocean yard unavailable until 2029, see chart #3. This only leaves the C71, which could start in 2027. Since the Saab Kockum facility is a 2-boat yard, they could build 6 boats before the Gotland replacement project starts in 2037, see chart #2.
The US Election and the Trump Factor will have to be a consideration in the sub procurement decision. The new administration has hit the ground running, National Security personnel have been named, and we will be ‘weighed & measured’ on our 28 Nov CPSP decision – subs are needed for the northern flank of Fortress North America and Defence of the Homeland. This is a conundrum for the PMO, normally if a President verbally attacks the PM, Canadians rally round, but not in this case. The rules-based order has broken down, Canada is friendless, polls show Canadians believe the country is dangerously disarmed, so on this one issue Canadians are siding with President Trump.
2 thoughts on “CPSP RFI: Complications! The earth has shifted under our feet! ”
I thought Hanwha was building boats 1 and 2? Confirmed who is building #3?
Well Norway has 6 Ula class boats already so to me the chart just shows a 1 for 1 replacement so no expansion.
Germany it looks more like 4 boats are confirmed which would replace the first 4 type 212A boats. If they do get the next batch then yes they would increase the size by 3 boats as they only have 6 right now.
The 212As by the time all the CDs are in service will be close if not already reached retirement age.
South Korea is looking to expand. To be honest I’m surprised they didn’t go for the light carrier design in place of the extra submarines, but Korea can expand their yards more easily that us in Europe.
Sweden seems to be a viable option now given the gaps between boat builds but it depends on if they order more A26s or not.