By Dan Middlemiss, 30 June 2026
The evaluation criteria that will be the basis for selecting Canada’s new submarine replacement have come to light recently. (see Judy Trinh, "Will the Germans or South Koreans emerge as Canada’s sub deal winner?", www.ctvnews.ca, 29 June 2026, https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/article/will-the-germans-or-south-koreans-emerge-as-canadas-sub-deal-winner/)
The criteria, with their individual weighting, are reported to be:
“Sustainment (50%): Evaluates long-term maintenance, repair and operational support plans over the submarine fleet’s multi-decade lifespan.
Submarine Platform (20%): Assesses technical specifications, stealth, under-ice capabilities and military performance.
Financial (15%): Covers the upfront capital cost and build budget for the conventionally powered vessels.
Strategic and Economic Partnerships (15%): Measures foreign investment, domestic job creation, and strategic alignment with Canada's geopolitical goals”
Notably, this evaluation framework does not include any reference to early delivery schedule, a concern that Vice Admiral Topshee repeatedly emphasized was a priority concern for the Canadian Navy.
This omission would appear to negate what many thought was a clear advantage for the South Korean bid. While the German bid is said to include a recent pledge to move the delivery of submarines to Canada up in the production queue and ahead of Germany’s and Norway’s own spots, some might question how binding this pledge really is, and whether this remains something that still would have to be negotiated with the three partners – no mean feat.
Despite these criteria, the emphasis the current government is placing upon extracting the maximum possible economic benefits from this procurement program – apparently with the actual bid selection decision only marking the starting point for more intensive negotiations on what these economic benefits will be – one wonders whether the submarine replacement will once more serve primarily as a vehicle for realizing economic objectives rather than one prioritizing national defence requirements.
Image: A photo of a KSS-III Batch I on the left and a rendering of the Type 212 CD on the right. Credit: Republic of Korea Navy, ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems
6 thoughts on “Canada’s Submarine Competition Selection Criteria”
Hello Dan. Canada’s decision on which submarine will win the competition on the next Canadian Patrol Submarine Project (Hanwha Ocean’s KSS III Batch II or TKMS’s 212CD submarines), as far as I can tell, would be announced “as soon as” late June 2026. That does not mean it should have been announced on June 30 2026. This decision by the government could be announced as late as the end of July 2026 or as early as today (02 July 2026), or maybe not until the government is completely satisfied on one bid or the other. Everything it seems is up to the PM. Only two things are certain; death and taxes! This decision is a huge deal for Canada and the RCN, so, let’s all just relax, keep cool (if you can) and it will happen. Cheers!
One obvious area that is extremely concerning to me is that actual military boat performance for the CPS role consists of just 20% of the valuation score: “Submarine Platform (20%): Assesses technical specifications, stealth, under-ice capabilities and military performance.” At minimum this area should be worth at least 50%. This is absolutely ridiculous and unacceptable and I again point the gnarly finger at the political process that is ensuring that politics again surmounts what is most important to the defence of the country, safety and survivability of the crew, a boat that can actually operate under ice persistently against any boat, conventional or nuclear that an adversary may put up against the RCN, anywhere in Canadian Arctic waters to the pole. What I do see from Germany and Norway’s very kind offer to supply 212CD’s to Canada, is an offer that severely impacts their navy’s ability to fulfill the build-up of their submarine capabilities, to the benefit of Canada, a country which failed to plan to ensure its own naval submarine capacity. That is in my view, embarrassing and inexcusable.
Good morning Brian,
We must remember that the 20% is part of the final selection for contenders that have already been found to meet the mandatory military requirements.
As I understand it, both contenders are very good vessels that are more than acceptable to the RCN. Thus, the question in no longer about military requirements but which bid best meets Canada’s needs. The 20% simply allows a chance to recognize the slight differences in the contenders’ performance.
Ubique,
Lea
Canada’s PM Mark Carney will announce tomorrow (06 July 2026) before he leaves for the NATO Summit in Turkey, which company (either Hanwha Ocean’s KSS III Batch II or TKMS’ Type 212 CD Submarines will win Canadas’ next submarine project. See below from the Ottawa Citizen:
https://ottawacitizen.com/public-service/defence-watch/submarine-decision-canadian-navy
Thank you David.
Ubique,
Les
As of 2PM Atlantic today, 07 July 2026, It appears reporting from Globe & Mail “SOURCES”, that Canada has chosen the German TKMS Type 212CD SUB (not yet confirmed) over the ROK KSS III Batch II sub. More to follow, I suspect!!